The Futurist Thoughts of Nikola Tesla

In 1926, telephone communications across the world were new, and the landline telephone was cutting edge technology.  However, Nikola Tesla was thinking ahead, and predicted the mobile phone.  His is quoted as saying that “through television and telephony we shall see and hear one another as perfectly as though we were face to face, despite intervening distances of thousands of miles; and the instruments through which we shall be able to do his will be amazingly simple compared with our present telephone. A man will be able to carry one in his vest pocket” (Brown, 2015).

 

Photo via Wikipedia/Nikola Tesla

 

This was a daring prediction, as the first mobile phone would not be invented until 1973 by Motorola.  The first prototype was developed by Martin Cooper and weighed 2.5 pounds.  It only had 35 minutes of talk time and required 10 hours to recharge (Gibson, 2018).  

 

Photo via Bettmann/Getty Images

 

Tesla was known for being a futurist and made many futurist comments during his lifetime.  His imagination seemed to be limitless.  A few of Tesla’s other famous predictions include x-ray technology, robotics, and the death ray.  (5 crazy inventions from the mind of Nikola Tesla, 2015).  

 

Not all of Tesla’s predictions were based on technology.  Some were based on the formations of organizations.  For example, he predicted that the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be formed 35 years before it was created (Novak, 2013).  

 

Tesla was truly a futurist and a visionary.  Some books that focus on his life and predictions are Famous Scientific Illusions by Nikola Tesla, Prodigal Genius: The Life of Nikola Tesla by John J. O’Neill, and Wizard, the Life and Times of Nikola Tesla by Marc J. Seifer.   

 

 

References

 

Brown, M. (2015, July 6). Nikola Tesla predicted smartphones in 1926 like a boss. GeekWire. Retrieved October 23, 2021, from https://www.geekwire.com/2015/nikola-tesla-predicted-smartphones-in-1926-like-a-boss/. 

Gibson, W. E. (2018, April 3). The first cell phone call was made 45 years ago. AARP. Retrieved October 23, 2021, from https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/history/info-2018/first-cell-phone-call.html. 

Novak, M. (2013, April 19). Nikola Tesla's amazing predictions for the 21st Century. Smithsonian.com. Retrieved October 23, 2021, from https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/nikola-teslas-amazing-predictions-for-the-21st-century-26353702/. 

5 crazy inventions from the mind of Nikola Tesla. The Week. (2015, January 8). Retrieved October 23, 2021, from https://theweek.com/articles/472881/5-crazy-inventions-from-mind-nikola-tesla. 

Scenario Planning vs Traditional Forecasting

Scenario Planning involves creating response plans for possible future scenarios.  In disaster recovery planning, scenario planning can be an invaluable tool where leaders imagine worst-case situations and develop mitigation plans to address them ("Scenario Planning: Full-Dress Rehearsal," 2003).  Scenario planning does not try to plan, rather, it tries to speculate possible scenarios or stories that can have any possibility of happening.  

 

Scenario planning for an organization has six steps (Tucker, 1999)

1.     Learn the future world perceptions of top decision makers

2.     Gather trends intelligence, and prioritize external forces

3.     Sketch scenarios

4.     Weigh scenario implications

5.     Consider warning indicator signs

6.     Check the organization’s relevance and vision

 

Traditional Forecasting uses historical data and observations to determine future plans.  It relies heavily on the availability of historical data and is often done either yearly or quarterly.  It assumes that the future will not be much different than the past.  Traditional forecasting can often be seen in financial sectors of businesses.  Companies often try to create budgets a year in advance based heavily on the previous year’s data.  

 

Scenario planning can be extremely valuable for determining what-if and worst-case scenarios, and help companies know what they would do in a specific event.  However, it cannot help with long term projections that a company may need to present to stakeholders.  Traditional forecasting can fill that gap, but these forecasts can be rendered worthless in the face of a major unforeseen event.  

 

In my career, I am seeing the trend moving to more scenario planning, especially in the cybersecurity realm.  We lean heavily on scenario planning when creating disaster recovery plans.  But to fund those cybersecurity initiatives, I have to use traditional forecasting to present my yearly budget and request additional capital.  

 

References

 

Scenario Planning: Full-Dress Rehearsal. (2003). Info - Tech Advisor Newsletter. 

 

Tucker, K. (1999). Scenario planning. Association Management, 51(4), 70-75. 

Accidental Inventions That Changed History

    Many inventions over time have been created by those who are able to see accidents or mishaps as opportunities.  Many inventions, from playdoh to brandy, have been inadvertent discoveries that have turned into wildly successful products.  Two important accidental discoveries are listed below.

Velcro

            Velcro is a hook and loop fabric invented by engineer George de Mestral.  The name Velcro is derived from the French words for velvet (velour) and hook (crochet) (“Invention of Velcro® brand”, 2021).   The fabric constructed with nylon and polyester and consists of one strip with tiny hooks and a second strip with smaller loops that attach to each other.

Velcro [photo]. Body Loop.  https://thebodyloop.com/about-velcro/

            George de Mistral came up with the idea for Velcro when walking through the Jura mountains in Switzerland.  Cockle-burs stuck to his pants and his dog’s fur, and he became curious about how they attached themselves so easily and securely to fabric and fur.  Using a microscope, he was able to determine that the tiny hooks of the cockle-bur were attaching to the loops in his pants, and later sought to recreate this hook and loop system in fabric form.

            After trial and error, and help from others in the weaving business, George de Mistral patented Velcro in 1955.  Velcro’s popularity skyrocketed when it was used by NASA to secure objects in space, and has since been utilized in a wide variety of companies.  Velcro can be found scin any industry that needs hook and loop closures, including car seats, athletic equipment, shoes, and clothing.

Scotchgard

            In the 1950’s, 3M tasked Patsy Sherman and Samuel Smith with developing a type of rubber that would aid in the creation of jet fuel lines.  While working in their lab, an assistant accidentally dropped a bottle of synthetic latex onto her shoe.  Sherman and Smith noticed that after the latex spilled onto her shoe the canvas on her shoe could repel oil, water, and other liquids while not changing the color or texture of the canvas fabric (The happy accident behind the invention of Scotchgard, 2021).

 

Scotchgard adverstisement circa 1961 [photo]. Wickersham’s Conscience. https://wickershamsconscience.wordpress.com/2018/04/26/putting-the-genie-back-in-the-bottle-scotchgard/

 

            Both Sherman and Smith realized that there was a viable commercial application for their product.  They fine tuned the product for three years and patented the final product as Scotchgard Protector in 1955.  Scotchgard works by surrounding fibers with a fluorochemical shield that is impervious to water, oils, and dirt.  It keeps fabrics clean and increases their durability (Patsy Sherman, n.d.). 

References

Invention of Velcro® brand. (2021). Retrieved October 15, 2021, from https://www.hookandloop.com/invention-velcro-brand/.  

Patsy Sherman. Lemelson-MIT. (n.d.). Retrieved October 16, 2021, from https://lemelson.mit.edu/resources/patsy-sherman.   

The happy accident behind the invention of Scotchgard. National Inventors Hall of Fame®. (2021). Retrieved October 16, 2021, from https://www.invent.org/blog/inventors/patsy-sherman-samuel-smith.  

Think tanks - decision making overview

Think tank image [photo]. The Brazilian Report. https://brazilian.report/business/2017/12/12/brazils-think-tank-boom/ 

Think tanks consist of a variety of experts in their respective fields, who come together to find answers to many of our most elusive questions.  Think tanks are often funded by government, corporate, or special interest groups, but some are established for non-profit organizations.  Think tanks can operate under a one roof model, where everyone meets face to face, or a without walls model, where technological means are used to communicate (Hernandez, 2018).

 

Think tanks utilize decision making techniques that allow the experts to create and collaborate on ideas that could present possible solutions.  Two methods that can be used in a think tank are listed below.

·      Thinking backwards by starting with the desired outcome and working your way back - this method establishes the end goal first, then uses backward planning to determine what is needed along the way to achieve the goal.  Third, the think tank group then plans the process of reaching the goal using the information they gathered.

·      Internal incubation funding for ideas – research and development funds can be set aside to chase ideas and promote innovation (Silentstrike, 2016).  These funds can come from various sources and fund a variety of projects, but are intended for experts to research their ideas.      

 

References

 

Hernandez, M. (2018). Think Tank Methods. Dr. Michael K Hernandez. https://mkhernandez.wordpress.com/2018/01/13/think-tank-methods/

 

Silentstrike. (2016). Think Tank Methodologies and Techniques. Strike Cyberscoop. https://strikecyberscoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/think-tank-methodologies-and-techniques/

 

Group Decision-Making: Exploring the Delphi Method and Dot Voting

The Delphi method is also known as the Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE) technique, and is based on collecting opinions from experts through rounds of questions (Delphi Method, 2021).  The Delphi method consists of identify an issue and an objective, the gathering a group of experts and a facilitator.  Then the experts are given three rounds of questionnaires.

The first questionnaire is filled with open-ended questions, allowing the experts to brainstorm. The facilitator gathers the responses and is tasked with creating a summary report.  The second questionnaire is based on the analyzation of the first questionnaire, and those responses are then summarized by the facilitator.  The third round is similar to the second and continues to refine continuing themes.  Additional rounds can be added to continue to reach consensus.  

 

Another method is known as dot voting, or sticky dot voting, and is a personal favorite of mine because I have seen it used well in various scenarios.  Basically, you put each idea on an individual sticky note or a separate line on a whiteboard.  Next, you give sticky dots to each member of the team, and let them put dots on the idea they want to vote for.  After that is done, you can rearrange the sticky notes in order of most to least votes.

("How dot voting helps with group decision-making," 2021)

 

I have used this at conferences where software teams wanted to know what ideas were considered most valuable.  It is quick, and every vote is equal.  Everyone participates, and it creates priorities for the group.  Cons to this method is that it can facilitate groupthink, but this can be avoided using online platforms like Lucidspark ("How dot voting helps with group decision-making," 2021).  Also, split voting can happen, where an even number of votes can appear on multiple ideas.  This can be resolved by assigning dots to participants with a value of 1, 2, or 3 representing their 1^st-3^rd choices.  

 

References

 

Delphi Method - A qualitative method of forecasting where experts answer several rounds of questionnaires. (2021).  Retrieved 10/2/2021 from https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/other/delphi-method/

How dot voting helps with group decision-making. (2021). Lucidspark. https://lucidspark.com/blog/dot-voting

Higher Education Cybersecurity in 2021 – key technologies and trends from Educause

Higher education had a whirlwind year in 2020 starting with the COVID pandemic, which continued through 2021.  Information Technology professionals in higher education are tired, but unfortunately, there is no reprieve on the horizon.  COVID brought forth remote work expectations that will continue to shape the future for years to come.  I’ll address one key technology and one key trend below to watch below based on the 2021 Educause Information Security report("2021 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Information Security Edition," 2021), with supporting forces explaining the urgency behind these issues.

 

Keep on fighting the good fight higher ed IT!  We are in this for the long haul, but we will be better for it.  

 

Key Technology – Endpoint Detection

 

Security incidents and ransomware are on the rise in higher education ("2021 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Information Security Edition," 2021).  Institutions are having to transition from response and recovery to prevention and identification strategies, including blocking malicious emails and controlling access.  This has promoted the need for endpoint detection and response.   

 

Two forces impacting the technology

 

Based on research from Absolute, over 70% of all security breaches start at endpoint devices, primarily through compromised credentials or degraded security systems ("2021 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Information Security Edition," 2021). Endpoint detection systems allow for remote remediation of security incidents, allowing for immediate mitigation of threats.  This greatly reduces the potential adverse effects of a cyber incident and has a significant positive impact on information security but can be costly and require a significant financial investment on behalf of the institution.  However, the cost of a potential cyberattack is daunting, with average data breach costs of 3.9 million, the potential for disrupted online learning, and can hurt an institutions’ credit profile (Seltzer, 2021).                    

 

Relevance for Information Security – Endpoint Detection and Response. [Infographic]. 2021 Educause Horizon Report, Information Security Edition. https://library.educause.edu/-/media/files/library/2021/2/2021_horizon_report_infosec.pdf?la=en&hash=6F5254070245E2F4234C3FDE6AA1AA00ED7960FB

 

Another force impacting endpoint detection is the increasing expansion of the Internet of Things (IoT). Students and staff bring a wide variety of devices on physical campuses daily, from smartphones to laptops and tablets.  However, the IoT will create new devices and technologies that we can expect consumers to adopt and use in their daily lives.  Gartner expects that IoT devices will increase by 43 billion by 2023 ("2021 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Information Security Edition," 2021), which will force the higher education industry to develop a plan to secure networks against non-University devices that need network access.

 

Key Trend – Remote work

 

Remote work was identified as an Uber Trend for in the 2021 EDUCAUSE Information Security Horizon Report because it has had far-reaching implications for information security and will continue to be a major force for years to come.  It also presents the question of the “new normal,” and how higher education will look in the future, particularly for higher educational institutions with all or most of their students classified as on-campus learners.  

Man on couch working on laptop with dog [photo]. Business Quick. https://bq-magazine.com/5-ways-you-might-sabotage-your-own-remote-work-efforts/

Two forces impacting the trend

 

One force impacting this trend is the control of devices allowed on a university network for business purposes.  For example, should colleges ban the use of personal devices for business work, or block personal devices from accessing staff networks?  If personal devices are allowed, should universities pay for endpoint protection for all personal devices that access the network, and be expected to be able to afford that expense?  If universities say only university equipment can be used, are they slowing down progress on business-critical work, and is that plan feasible in a new era of work-from-home employees?  

 

A second force impacting this trend is that many employees do not want to come back into the office. Working from home can give people better work-life balance and can allow hiring managers a deeper talent pool.  However, many higher ed employees at campuses with on-campus students need to return to their campus before students to ensure some normalcy.  But, there an be disparity among who returns and who stays as a work from home employee.  Slack’s “Remote Employee Experience Index” shows that only 12% of skilled workers plan to return exclusively to an on-site office ("2021 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Information Security Edition," 2021).

 

 

References

 

2021 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Information Security Edition. (2021). Retrieved 9/27/2021, from https://library.educause.edu/-/media/files/library/2021/2/2021_horizon_report_infosec.pdf?la=en&hash=6F5254070245E2F4234C3FDE6AA1AA00ED7960FB

Seltzer, R. (2021). Cyberattacks Pose Credit Risks for Higher Education. Inside Higher Ed. Retrieved 10/1/2021, from https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2021/03/31/cyberattacks-pose-credit-risks-higher-education